For the first time in half a decade, Ghana’s upstream oil sector has something to celebrate. Crude oil production has risen by approximately 30% in 2026, reversing a slump that saw output fall from a peak of 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to a projected 36 million barrels in 2025. The Jubilee field, long the centrepiece of Ghana’s hydrocarbon ambitions, has climbed from 60,000 to 85,000 barrels per day, and the TEN and Sankofa fields are also recording measurable gains. President Mahama’s announcement of $3.5 billion in fresh upstream commitments, $2 billion from Jubilee partners for up to 20 new wells and $1.5 billion from OCTP partners, has rightly generated optimism in Accra and among international investors watching West Africa.
At AFR OPES Africa, we welcome this turnaround. But it is worth saying clearly: the rebound is real, and the hard work starts now.
The 2026 recovery is not merely a cyclical uptick. It is the product of deliberate policy choices: the extension of the Jubilee and TEN licences to 2040, a reformed fiscal framework that reduced GNPC’s carried interest from 15% to 10% and extended petroleum agreements from 25 to 30 years, and new agreements covering the Afina Discovery and the offshore Tano West basin. The MoU signed between Shell and Chevron at Africa Oil Week 2026 for South Deepwater Tano is a significant signal that major international oil companies are re-engaging with Ghana’s deepwater frontier.
These are structural changes. They are not easily reversed, and they send a credible message that Ghana understands what it takes to compete for upstream capital.
Optimism should be tempered by honesty. Ghana’s production base remains dependent on ageing offshore fields. Jubilee began production in 2010 and TEN came onstream in 2016. Without continuous infill drilling and active reservoir management, both fields will resume their natural decline within the licence extension window. The 20 new wells planned under the Jubilee development plan are necessary, but they are not sufficient to guarantee long-term growth if subsurface performance underdelivers.
The Pecan field, Ghana’s most significant undeveloped discovery, remains without a Final Investment Decision, with delays linked to sanctions complications around Lukoil. Until Pecan reaches FID, Ghana’s production outlook beyond the mid-2030s carries real uncertainty.
Equally important is gas. The shift to domestic gas for power generation, projected to cut generation costs by at least 75%, is the right policy direction. But it requires midstream infrastructure to keep pace with upstream ambitions. Expanded gas processing, the Tema gas distribution network and the handling of associated gas from new Jubilee wells all need to be delivered on time and on budget. In Ghana’s infrastructure history, that is never guaranteed.
AFR OPES Africa advises companies entering or expanding in Ghana’s energy sector. Our position is this: the window is open, but it will not stay open indefinitely.
Reformed fiscal terms, rising production, active exploration across the Tano Basin and the onshore Voltaian Basin, and a government clearly motivated to attract capital together create an entry environment that did not exist two years ago. For oil services companies, technology providers, gas infrastructure developers and midstream investors, 2026 and 2027 represent a strategic moment to establish position.
But the companies that succeed will not be those who arrive with a generic Africa strategy. They will be the ones who understand Ghana’s specific regulatory architecture, including the Petroleum Commission’s local content requirements, GNPC’s evolving commercial role and the EPA’s new carbon registry obligations, and who build relationships in Accra before they need them, not after.
The rebound is real. The opportunity is real. But in Ghana’s energy sector, being right about the macro is not enough. Execution is everything.
AFR OPES Africa is an Accra-based advisory firm specialising in energy, extractives, policy and manufacturing across African markets. For a confidential discussion about your Ghana market entry or expansion, contact us at [email protected].
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